2026 midterms · Hawaii
0 of 5 counties have more registrations than the Census counts adult citizens; 0 of them by more than the Census margin of error. In the Governor race, GREEN, Josh / KAWAKAMI, Derek S.K. (D) against CORDERY, Gary / ANTHONY, Daniel (R), 4 of 4 counties moved toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential vote; statewide, 10.9 points toward Democrats.
Registrations ÷ Census adult citizens
80.9%
853,399 TOTAL REGISTRATION against 1,054,491 ± 2,853 adult citizens
Counties over 100%
0 of 5
0 beyond the Census margin of error
Swing since 2024
10.9 points toward Democrats
Governor: GREEN, Josh / KAWAKAMI, Derek S.K. (D), CORDERY, Gary / ANTHONY, Daniel (R), against the 2024 presidential vote
Turnout
45.8%
ballots cast ÷ registrations
Results: unofficial, from the state’s file. County summary REPORT 4 printed 11/04/2026 09:44 pm. That printout shows about half of the precincts counted in every contest, and the page gives no reason. It is the newest printout on the state’s results page. Source
Registration file: TOTAL REGISTRATION. County summary REPORT 3 printed 11/04/2026 05:05 am.
Hawaii’s file gives one registration number, “TOTAL REGISTRATION”, and does not say whether inactive registrations are included.
The state’s registration file has no row for Kalawao County; those shapes are hatched. The state’s results file has no row for Kalawao County; those shapes are hatched.
Each county is colored by its registrations (TOTAL REGISTRATION) as a share of the Census count of its adult citizens. Gray is 100% or less; the amber steps are over 100%, darker for more.
| County | Registrations ÷ adult citizens | Registrations | Adult citizens | Swing since 2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii County | 88.9% | 135,544 | 152,477 | D +10.0 | 46.1% |
| Honolulu County | 75.5% | 550,792 | 729,458 | D +10.9 | 46.1% |
| Kalawao County | — | — | 70 | — | — |
| Kauai County | 91.8% | 49,337 | 53,752 | D +14.2 | 49.9% |
| Maui County | 99.1% | 117,726 | 118,804 | D +10.0 | 42.7% |
Each arrow starts at the county’s center. It leans left and blue where the county moved toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential vote to the 2026 Governor race, and right and red where it moved toward Republicans; the longer the arrow, the bigger the move.
Each dot is a county. Across: its registrations as a share of the Census count of adult citizens, with the dashed line at 100%. Up: its swing toward Democrats since 2024; down: toward Republicans.
Alphabetical. Each entry gives the county’s registrations against the Census count of adult citizens, its ballots, and its swing since 2024, with the file each figure comes from.
Ballots: ballots cast. County summary REPORT 3 printed 11/04/2026 05:05 am (file).
Ballots: ballots cast. County summary REPORT 4 printed 11/04/2026 09:44 pm (file).
No registration row in the state file; no results row in the state file.
Ballots: ballots cast. County summary REPORT 3 printed 11/04/2026 07:36 am (file).
Ballots: ballots cast. County summary REPORT 3 printed 11/04/2026 02:35 am (file).
Every figure on this page is computed from the files listed below when the page is built. The registration count is the state’s own, under the state’s own label. The adult-citizen count is the Census Bureau’s citizen voting-age population from its special tabulation of the American Community Survey for 2020 to 2024, which carries a margin of error for every area; a county is “over within the margin” when its registrations pass the estimate by less than that margin.
The ratio to all adults uses the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates of every resident of voting age, citizen or not, as of July 2025. Turnout is ballots cast divided by registrations, using the state’s own label for its ballots count; where a state publishes no ballots count, the votes in the race shown stand in, and the entry says so.
The swing is the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the 2026 race shown, minus the Democratic share in the 2024 presidential race, in percentage points. The race is the US Senate where the Democrat and the Republican each drew more votes than all other candidates together; otherwise the governor’s race; otherwise the US House, summed over each county’s contested districts. Votes are counted on the Democratic and Republican lines only; votes for the same candidates on other party lines are counted with the other candidates. Under ranked choice, first choices are used. The 2024 baseline is the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s county file.
These pages describe the numbers. They are kept apart from the tests we registered in advance for our own analysis of the 2026 returns. Unofficial results move during the canvass; each figure carries the time of the file it came from, and the pages are rebuilt as states certify and post new registration files.
| What | File | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Registration: TOTAL REGISTRATION | elections.hawaii.gov (4 files) | one file per unit; each unit's time is in its entry below the map |
| 2026 Governor results (unofficial) | elections.hawaii.gov (4 files) | one file per unit; each unit's time is in its entry below the map |
| Census adult citizens (CVAP), ACS 2020–2024 special tabulation | www2.census.gov | published 2026 |
| Census adult residents, Vintage 2025 estimates | www2.census.gov | July 1, 2025 |
| 2024 president by county, MIT Election Data and Science Lab | doi.org | certified 2024 returns |