← All states

2026 midterms · Mississippi

In Mississippi, registrations come to 85.0% of the Census count of adult citizens

8 of 82 counties have more registrations than the Census counts adult citizens; 7 of them by more than the Census margin of error.

Registrations ÷ Census adult citizens

85.0%

1,888,362 Number of Active Voters against 2,221,778 ± 1,803 adult citizens

Counties over 100%

8 of 82

7 beyond the Census margin of error

Swing since 2024

Pending

2026 county results are still to come.

Results: Mississippi’s Secretary of State site lists no 2026 general results yet. Source

Certification: County election commissions deliver their returns to the Secretary of State by November 13. Source

Registration file: Number of Active Voters. October 2026 report (PDF created 11/2/2026).

Next, November 13: county returns to the Secretary of State. Source

Mississippi’s file counts active registrations only; the state’s file has no inactive count.

Voter rolls by county

Each county is colored by its registrations (Number of Active Voters) as a share of the Census count of its adult citizens. Gray is 100% or less; the amber steps are over 100%, darker for more.

Registrations ÷ Census adult citizens, by county8 of 82 counties over 100%, 7 of them beyond the Census margin of error. Statewide: 85.0%. Click or tap a county to go to its entry.
Every county as a table
CountyRegistrations ÷ adult citizensRegistrationsAdult citizensSwing since 2024Turnout
Adams County79.4%17,09921,522——
Alcorn County92.2%24,14026,171——
Amite County88.5%8,8479,991——
Attala County79.5%10,41813,109——
Benton County101.9%5,7955,687——
Bolivar County81.9%18,03222,026——
Calhoun County92.0%9,0229,805——
Carroll County87.9%6,9777,936——
Chickasaw County87.1%11,03512,665——
Choctaw County79.2%5,0336,354——
Claiborne County91.2%6,0816,670——
Clarke County92.0%11,00711,960——
Clay County93.6%13,31714,231——
Coahoma County86.2%12,63714,652——
Copiah County81.9%17,46821,335——
Covington County92.9%12,60013,556——
DeSoto County85.8%120,091139,990——
Forrest County76.4%45,09259,024——
Franklin County91.0%5,3125,839——
George County85.3%15,61118,311——
Greene County67.8%7,42710,949——
Grenada County79.8%12,68415,900——
Hancock County101.9%37,49436,810——
Harrison County85.7%134,776157,314——
Hinds County100.3%165,286164,779——
Holmes County101.3%12,36312,207——
Humphreys County116.0%6,4035,520——
Issaquena County87.7%767875——
Itawamba County75.2%14,19418,867——
Jackson County78.7%86,935110,482——
Jasper County86.3%10,61312,300——
Jefferson County94.6%5,3005,601——
Jefferson Davis County87.5%7,7848,901——
Jones County90.1%43,54648,338——
Kemper County86.6%6,1607,111——
Lafayette County70.9%33,07846,664——
Lamar County83.5%40,70048,758——
Lauderdale County73.3%39,69654,120——
Lawrence County86.2%7,6808,914——
Leake County76.2%12,13915,933——
Lee County82.7%50,39860,939——
Leflore County97.6%19,11519,587——
Lincoln County78.6%21,02326,734——
Lowndes County85.5%37,10543,421——
Madison County93.2%76,55682,183——
Marion County86.5%15,93118,414——
Marshall County92.1%24,20226,279——
Monroe County90.1%23,43626,024——
Montgomery County81.1%6,0187,423——
Neshoba County76.4%15,93620,847——
Newton County78.6%12,51115,908——
Noxubee County94.9%7,0787,461——
Oktibbeha County66.2%27,27941,210——
Panola County90.5%22,25024,595——
Pearl River County82.4%36,17543,908——
Perry County89.7%8,0028,919——
Pike County84.8%24,89629,349——
Pontotoc County89.3%20,27522,708——
Prentiss County70.3%13,69719,481——
Quitman County99.0%4,3914,435——
Rankin County81.5%98,792121,170——
Scott County72.3%13,44418,607——
Sharkey County99.8%2,9552,962——
Simpson County82.5%16,15419,583——
Smith County101.8%10,95810,768——
Stone County74.4%10,97714,760——
Sunflower County59.0%11,05218,733——
Tallahatchie County104.1%9,5979,218——
Tate County84.3%18,32121,740——
Tippah County83.2%13,39116,095——
Tishomingo County86.3%12,42714,401——
Tunica County81.2%5,5456,825——
Union County81.8%17,01220,802——
Walthall County89.7%9,51010,604——
Warren County73.1%23,89532,709——
Washington County77.4%24,55231,703——
Wayne County88.4%12,77414,458——
Webster County85.0%6,3577,480——
Wilkinson County76.3%4,9726,514——
Winston County87.5%11,93513,636——
Yalobusha County83.2%8,0739,700——
Yazoo County102.4%18,75618,308——

The 2026 swing by county

Results pending: Mississippi’s Secretary of State site lists no 2026 general results yet. Next, November 13: county returns to the Secretary of State.

Counties, one by one

Alphabetical. Each entry gives the county’s registrations against the Census count of adult citizens, its ballots, and its swing since 2024, with the file each figure comes from.

Adams County

Number of Active Voters
17,099
Census adult citizens
21,522 ± 192
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
79.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
68.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 57.0%

Alcorn County

Number of Active Voters
24,140
Census adult citizens
26,171 ± 112
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
92.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
89.7%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 15.5%

Amite County

Number of Active Voters
8,847
Census adult citizens
9,991 ± 44
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
88.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
87.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 33.4%

Attala County

Number of Active Voters
10,418
Census adult citizens
13,109 ± 60
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
79.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
80.6%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 38.3%

Benton County

Number of Active Voters
5,795
Census adult citizens
5,687 ± 193
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
101.9% (within the margin)
Registrations ÷ all adults
97.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 34.2%

Bolivar County

Number of Active Voters
18,032
Census adult citizens
22,026 ± 108
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
82.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 61.9%

Calhoun County

Number of Active Voters
9,022
Census adult citizens
9,805 ± 95
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
92.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
90.6%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 25.8%

Carroll County

Number of Active Voters
6,977
Census adult citizens
7,936 ± 77
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
87.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
90.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 27.7%

Chickasaw County

Number of Active Voters
11,035
Census adult citizens
12,665 ± 47
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
87.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
86.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 43.1%

Choctaw County

Number of Active Voters
5,033
Census adult citizens
6,354 ± 75
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
79.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 25.1%

Claiborne County

Number of Active Voters
6,081
Census adult citizens
6,670 ± 79
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
91.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
96.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 84.1%

Clarke County

Number of Active Voters
11,007
Census adult citizens
11,960 ± 39
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
92.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
93.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 32.3%

Clay County

Number of Active Voters
13,317
Census adult citizens
14,231 ± 26
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
93.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
92.8%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 55.3%

Coahoma County

Number of Active Voters
12,637
Census adult citizens
14,652 ± 84
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
84.6%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 70.1%

Copiah County

Number of Active Voters
17,468
Census adult citizens
21,335 ± 115
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 46.9%

Covington County

Number of Active Voters
12,600
Census adult citizens
13,556 ± 146
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
92.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
91.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 33.2%

DeSoto County

Number of Active Voters
120,091
Census adult citizens
139,990 ± 552
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
85.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
79.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 37.6%

Forrest County

Number of Active Voters
45,092
Census adult citizens
59,024 ± 324
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
76.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
72.8%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 40.9%

Franklin County

Number of Active Voters
5,312
Census adult citizens
5,839 ± 23
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
91.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
90.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 30.0%

George County

Number of Active Voters
15,611
Census adult citizens
18,311 ± 147
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
85.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
79.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 10.3%

Greene County

Number of Active Voters
7,427
Census adult citizens
10,949 ± 53
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
67.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
66.7%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 14.9%

Grenada County

Number of Active Voters
12,684
Census adult citizens
15,900 ± 177
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
79.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 41.8%

Hancock County

Number of Active Voters
37,494
Census adult citizens
36,810 ± 206
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
101.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
99.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 20.3%

Harrison County

Number of Active Voters
134,776
Census adult citizens
157,314 ± 454
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
85.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
80.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 35.4%

Hinds County

Number of Active Voters
165,286
Census adult citizens
164,779 ± 368
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
100.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
100.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 73.4%

Holmes County

Number of Active Voters
12,363
Census adult citizens
12,207 ± 22
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
101.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
103.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 81.3%

Humphreys County

Number of Active Voters
6,403
Census adult citizens
5,520 ± 23
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
116.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
118.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 71.2%

Issaquena County

Number of Active Voters
767
Census adult citizens
875 ± 115
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
87.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
67.1%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 49.2%

Itawamba County

Number of Active Voters
14,194
Census adult citizens
18,867 ± 137
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
75.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
71.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 9.7%

Jackson County

Number of Active Voters
86,935
Census adult citizens
110,482 ± 409
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
78.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
75.6%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 29.8%

Jasper County

Number of Active Voters
10,613
Census adult citizens
12,300 ± 95
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
86.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 47.5%

Jefferson County

Number of Active Voters
5,300
Census adult citizens
5,601 ± 27
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
94.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
99.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 83.4%

Jefferson Davis County

Number of Active Voters
7,784
Census adult citizens
8,901 ± 17
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
87.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
89.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 56.9%

Jones County

Number of Active Voters
43,546
Census adult citizens
48,338 ± 282
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
90.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
85.7%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 26.4%

Kemper County

Number of Active Voters
6,160
Census adult citizens
7,111 ± 49
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
87.1%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 58.5%

Lafayette County

Number of Active Voters
33,078
Census adult citizens
46,664 ± 316
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
70.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
67.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 38.9%

Lamar County

Number of Active Voters
40,700
Census adult citizens
48,758 ± 334
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
83.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.8%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 25.3%

Lauderdale County

Number of Active Voters
39,696
Census adult citizens
54,120 ± 178
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
73.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
73.1%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 39.3%

Lawrence County

Number of Active Voters
7,680
Census adult citizens
8,914 ± 14
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
84.8%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 31.6%

Leake County

Number of Active Voters
12,139
Census adult citizens
15,933 ± 151
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
76.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
74.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 38.2%

Lee County

Number of Active Voters
50,398
Census adult citizens
60,939 ± 278
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
82.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
79.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 30.4%

Leflore County

Number of Active Voters
19,115
Census adult citizens
19,587 ± 224
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
97.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
98.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 69.4%

Lincoln County

Number of Active Voters
21,023
Census adult citizens
26,734 ± 138
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
78.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 27.2%

Lowndes County

Number of Active Voters
37,105
Census adult citizens
43,421 ± 271
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
85.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
83.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 45.9%

Madison County

Number of Active Voters
76,556
Census adult citizens
82,183 ± 343
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
93.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
85.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 41.2%

Marion County

Number of Active Voters
15,931
Census adult citizens
18,414 ± 158
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
85.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 29.0%

Marshall County

Number of Active Voters
24,202
Census adult citizens
26,279 ± 164
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
92.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
87.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 46.3%

Monroe County

Number of Active Voters
23,436
Census adult citizens
26,024 ± 97
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
90.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
89.8%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 31.9%

Montgomery County

Number of Active Voters
6,018
Census adult citizens
7,423 ± 25
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 39.5%

Neshoba County

Number of Active Voters
15,936
Census adult citizens
20,847 ± 121
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
76.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
75.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 24.3%

Newton County

Number of Active Voters
12,511
Census adult citizens
15,908 ± 96
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
78.6%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 28.2%

Noxubee County

Number of Active Voters
7,078
Census adult citizens
7,461 ± 43
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
94.9%
Registrations ÷ all adults
95.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 74.0%

Oktibbeha County

Number of Active Voters
27,279
Census adult citizens
41,210 ± 367
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
66.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
63.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 49.9%

Panola County

Number of Active Voters
22,250
Census adult citizens
24,595 ± 146
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
90.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
89.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 42.5%

Pearl River County

Number of Active Voters
36,175
Census adult citizens
43,908 ± 148
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
82.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 16.3%

Perry County

Number of Active Voters
8,002
Census adult citizens
8,919 ± 36
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
89.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
88.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 19.6%

Pike County

Number of Active Voters
24,896
Census adult citizens
29,349 ± 95
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
84.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
83.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 48.2%

Pontotoc County

Number of Active Voters
20,275
Census adult citizens
22,708 ± 240
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
89.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
84.3%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 15.9%

Prentiss County

Number of Active Voters
13,697
Census adult citizens
19,481 ± 69
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
70.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
69.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 16.8%

Quitman County

Number of Active Voters
4,391
Census adult citizens
4,435 ± 8
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
99.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
105.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 65.7%

Rankin County

Number of Active Voters
98,792
Census adult citizens
121,170 ± 304
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
77.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 26.2%

Scott County

Number of Active Voters
13,444
Census adult citizens
18,607 ± 261
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
72.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
66.1%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 37.9%

Sharkey County

Number of Active Voters
2,955
Census adult citizens
2,962 ± 112
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
99.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
124.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 68.6%

Simpson County

Number of Active Voters
16,154
Census adult citizens
19,583 ± 115
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
82.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.7%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 31.5%

Smith County

Number of Active Voters
10,958
Census adult citizens
10,768 ± 97
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
101.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
102.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 19.5%

Stone County

Number of Active Voters
10,977
Census adult citizens
14,760 ± 87
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
74.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
70.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 20.7%

Sunflower County

Number of Active Voters
11,052
Census adult citizens
18,733 ± 107
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
59.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
59.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 67.9%

Tallahatchie County

Number of Active Voters
9,597
Census adult citizens
9,218 ± 131
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
104.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
109.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 53.0%

Tate County

Number of Active Voters
18,321
Census adult citizens
21,740 ± 78
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
84.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 27.9%

Tippah County

Number of Active Voters
13,391
Census adult citizens
16,095 ± 97
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
83.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 16.2%

Tishomingo County

Number of Active Voters
12,427
Census adult citizens
14,401 ± 69
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
86.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
83.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 10.3%

Tunica County

Number of Active Voters
5,545
Census adult citizens
6,825 ± 42
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
84.4%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 69.7%

Union County

Number of Active Voters
17,012
Census adult citizens
20,802 ± 146
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
81.8%
Registrations ÷ all adults
78.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 14.6%

Walthall County

Number of Active Voters
9,510
Census adult citizens
10,604 ± 67
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
89.7%
Registrations ÷ all adults
87.7%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 36.4%

Warren County

Number of Active Voters
23,895
Census adult citizens
32,709 ± 136
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
73.1%
Registrations ÷ all adults
74.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 48.0%

Washington County

Number of Active Voters
24,552
Census adult citizens
31,703 ± 71
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
77.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
79.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 67.7%

Wayne County

Number of Active Voters
12,774
Census adult citizens
14,458 ± 303
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
88.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
85.5%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 33.5%

Webster County

Number of Active Voters
6,357
Census adult citizens
7,480 ± 44
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
85.0%
Registrations ÷ all adults
82.2%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 17.2%

Wilkinson County

Number of Active Voters
4,972
Census adult citizens
6,514 ± 18
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
76.3%
Registrations ÷ all adults
79.0%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 62.8%

Winston County

Number of Active Voters
11,935
Census adult citizens
13,636 ± 61
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
87.5%
Registrations ÷ all adults
87.1%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 40.8%

Yalobusha County

Number of Active Voters
8,073
Census adult citizens
9,700 ± 54
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
83.2%
Registrations ÷ all adults
81.9%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 39.4%

Yazoo County

Number of Active Voters
18,756
Census adult citizens
18,308 ± 170
Registrations ÷ adult citizens
102.4%
Registrations ÷ all adults
104.6%
Democratic two-party share, 2026 · 2024
— · 48.8%

How this was built

Every figure on this page is computed from the files listed below when the page is built. The registration count is the state’s own, under the state’s own label. The adult-citizen count is the Census Bureau’s citizen voting-age population from its special tabulation of the American Community Survey for 2020 to 2024, which carries a margin of error for every area; a county is “over within the margin” when its registrations pass the estimate by less than that margin.

The ratio to all adults uses the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates of every resident of voting age, citizen or not, as of July 2025. Turnout is ballots cast divided by registrations, using the state’s own label for its ballots count; where a state publishes no ballots count, the votes in the race shown stand in, and the entry says so.

The swing is the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the 2026 race shown, minus the Democratic share in the 2024 presidential race, in percentage points. The race is the US Senate where the Democrat and the Republican each drew more votes than all other candidates together; otherwise the governor’s race; otherwise the US House, summed over each county’s contested districts. Votes are counted on the Democratic and Republican lines only; votes for the same candidates on other party lines are counted with the other candidates. Under ranked choice, first choices are used. The 2024 baseline is the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s county file.

These pages describe the numbers. They are kept apart from the tests we registered in advance for our own analysis of the 2026 returns. Unofficial results move during the canvass; each figure carries the time of the file it came from, and the pages are rebuilt as states certify and post new registration files.

Sources

WhatFileAs of
Registration: Number of Active Voterswww.sos.ms.govOctober 2026 report (PDF created 11/2/2026)
Census adult citizens (CVAP), ACS 2020–2024 special tabulationwww2.census.govpublished 2026
Census adult residents, Vintage 2025 estimateswww2.census.govJuly 1, 2025
2024 president by county, MIT Election Data and Science Labdoi.orgcertified 2024 returns